2022 Deaths – All Causes – Male – Ages 40-44 | Washington, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 40-44 in Washington

1. 816 of 816 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is up 36% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 599 of 599 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 217 excess deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 455 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are up 36% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 40-44 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 816 of 273,208 men aged 40-44 living in Washington died from All Causes.

816 ÷ 273,208 = 0.00299 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 7,882 deaths from All Causes among 3,593,497 men aged 40-44 living in Washington in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

7,882 ÷ 3,593,497 = 0.00219 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

273,208 X 0.00219 = 599 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

816 – 599 = 217

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

816 ÷ 599 = 1.3555

This reveals 217 lives lost and is 135.55% of what we expected (an increase of 36%) in deaths from All Causes among men aged 40-44 living in Washington in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

3,923 ÷ 1,679,884 = 0.00234 (5-yr CDR)

273,208(2022 pop) X 0.00234 = 638 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

816 – 638 = 178 or 178 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

816 ÷ 638 = 1.2735 or an increase of 27%

for deaths from All Causes among men aged 40-44 living in Washington in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,953,092 X 0.00219 = 4,284 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

4739 – 4,284 = 455 or 455 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

4,739 ÷ 4,284 = 1.1012 or an increase of 10%

in deaths from All Causes among men aged 40-44 living in Washington in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.