2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 50-54 | Washington, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 50-54 in Washington

1. 1,162 of 2,276 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 51.05% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 18% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 982 of 2,002 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 180 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 274 excess All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 1,024 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 552 excess All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Washington’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 18% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 50-54 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,162 of 473,351 people aged 50-54 living in Washington died from Unknown Causes.

1,162 ÷ 473,351 = 0.00245 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 14,452 deaths from Unknown Causes among 6,965,655 people aged 50-54 living in Washington in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

14,452 ÷ 6,965,655 = 0.00207 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

473,351 X 0.00207 = 982 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,162 – 982 = 180

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,162 ÷ 982 = 1.1775

This reveals 180 lives lost and is 117.75% of what we expected (an increase of 18%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 50-54 living in Washington in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

7,653 ÷ 3,281,961 = 0.00233 (5-yr CDR)

473,351(2022 pop) X 0.00233 = 1,104 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,162 – 1,104 = 58 or 58 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,162 ÷ 1,104 = 1.0483 or an increase of 5%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 50-54 living in Washington in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

3,755,312 X 0.00207 = 7,791 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

8815 – 7,791 = 1,024 or 1,024 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

8,815 ÷ 7,791 = 1.1260 or an increase of 13%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 50-54 living in Washington in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.