2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 65-69 | Washington, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 65-69 in Washington

1. 1,864 of 6,370 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 29.26% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 10% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 2,067 of 6,267 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 203 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 103 excess All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 1,830 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 2,864 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Washington’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 10% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 65-69 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,864 of 431,631 elderly men and women aged 65-69 living in Washington died from Unknown Causes.

1,864 ÷ 431,631 = 0.00432 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 17,324 deaths from Unknown Causes among 3,617,163 elderly men and women aged 65-69 living in Washington in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

17,324 ÷ 3,617,163 = 0.00479 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

431,631 X 0.00479 = 2,067 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,864 – 2,067 = -203

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,864 ÷ 2,067 = 0.8998

This reveals 203 lives saved and is 89.98% of what we expected (a decrease of 10%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 65-69 living in Washington in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

11,850 ÷ 2,813,835 = 0.00421 (5-yr CDR)

431,631(2022 pop) X 0.00421 = 1,818 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,864 – 1,818 = 46 or 46 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,864 ÷ 1,818 = 1.0230 or an increase of 2%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 65-69 living in Washington in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

3,245,466 X 0.00479 = 15,544 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

13714 – 15,544 = -1,830 or 1,830 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

13,714 ÷ 15,544 = 0.8804 or a decrease of 12%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 65-69 living in Washington in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.