2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Male – Under 1 | Washington, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for baby boys in their first year of life in Washington

1. 176 of 191 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 92.14% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 15% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 207 of 240 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 31 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 49 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 287 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 361 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Washington’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 15% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many baby boys in their first year of life were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 176 of 43,086 baby boys in their first year of life living in Washington died from Unknown Causes.

176 ÷ 43,086 = 0.00408 (2022 CDR)

The table shows there were a total of 3,126 deaths from Unknown Causes among 650,783 baby boys in their first year of life living in Washington in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

3,126 ÷ 650,783 = 0.00480 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

43,086 X 0.00480 = 207 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

176 – 207 = -31

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

176 ÷ 207 = 0.8486

This reveals 31 lives saved and is 84.86% of what we expected (a decrease of 15%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among baby boys in their first year of life living in Washington in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

1,263 ÷ 316,159 = 0.00399 (5-yr CDR)

43,086(2022 pop) X 0.00399 = 172 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

176 – 172 = 4 or 4 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

176 ÷ 172 = 1.0200 or an increase of 2%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among baby boys in their first year of life living in Washington in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

359,245 X 0.00480 = 1,726 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1439 – 1,726 = -287 or 287 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

1,439 ÷ 1,726 = 0.8322 or a decrease of 17%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among baby boys in their first year of life living in Washington in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.