2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Male – Ages 20-24 | Washington, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 20-24 in Washington

1. 141 of 345 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 40.87% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 28% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 192 of 291 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 51 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 54 excess All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 324 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 174 excess All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Washington’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 28% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 20-24 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 141 of 262,642 men aged 20-24 living in Washington died from Unknown Causes.

141 ÷ 262,642 = 0.00054 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 2,580 deaths from Unknown Causes among 3,529,582 men aged 20-24 living in Washington in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

2,580 ÷ 3,529,582 = 0.00073 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

262,642 X 0.00073 = 192 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

141 – 192 = -51

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

141 ÷ 192 = 0.7245

This reveals 51 lives saved and is 72.45% of what we expected (a decrease of 28%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among men aged 20-24 living in Washington in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

1,020 ÷ 1,768,608 = 0.00058 (5-yr CDR)

262,642(2022 pop) X 0.00058 = 151 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

141 – 151 = -10 or 10 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

141 ÷ 151 = 0.9150 or a decrease of 9%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among men aged 20-24 living in Washington in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

2,031,250 X 0.00073 = 1,485 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1161 – 1,485 = -324 or 324 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

1,161 ÷ 1,485 = 0.7714 or a decrease of 23%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among men aged 20-24 living in Washington in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.