2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Male – 55-59 | Washington, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 55-59 in Washington

1. 770 of 2,012 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 38.27% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 12% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 686 of 1,770 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 84 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 242 excess All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 312 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 531 excess All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Washington’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 12% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 55-59 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 770 of 230,664 men aged 55-59 living in Washington died from Unknown Causes.

770 ÷ 230,664 = 0.00334 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 8,926 deaths from Unknown Causes among 3,000,708 men aged 55-59 living in Washington in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

8,926 ÷ 3,000,708 = 0.00297 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

230,664 X 0.00297 = 686 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

770 – 686 = 84

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

770 ÷ 686 = 1.1185

This reveals 84 lives lost and is 111.85% of what we expected (an increase of 12%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among men aged 55-59 living in Washington in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

5,234 ÷ 1,682,789 = 0.00311 (5-yr CDR)

230,664(2022 pop) X 0.00311 = 717 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

770 – 717 = 53 or 53 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

770 ÷ 717 = 1.0698 or an increase of 7%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among men aged 55-59 living in Washington in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,913,453 X 0.00297 = 5,692 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

6004 – 5,692 = 312 or 312 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

6,004 ÷ 5,692 = 1.0513 or an increase of 5%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among men aged 55-59 living in Washington in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.