2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Male – Ages 80+ | Washington, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 80+ in Washington

1. 2,958 of 12,896 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 22.94% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 3% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 2,881 of 12,655 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 77 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 241 excess All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 1,362 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 1,482 excess All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Washington’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 3% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 80+ were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 2,958 of 62,838 elderly men aged 80+ living in Washington died from Unknown Causes.

2,958 ÷ 62,838 = 0.04707 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 30,690 deaths from Unknown Causes among 669,360 elderly men aged 80+ living in Washington in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

30,690 ÷ 669,360 = 0.04585 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

62,838 X 0.04585 = 2,881 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

2,958 – 2,881 = 77

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

2,958 ÷ 2,881 = 1.0265

This reveals 77 lives lost and is 102.65% of what we expected (an increase of 3%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 80+ living in Washington in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

18,732 ÷ 380,524 = 0.04923 (5-yr CDR)

62,838(2022 pop) X 0.04923 = 3,093 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2,958 – 3,093 = -135 or 135 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

2,958 ÷ 3,093 = 0.9561 or a decrease of 4%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 80+ living in Washington in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

443,362 X 0.04585 = 20,328 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

21690 – 20,328 = 1,362 or 1,362 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

21,690 ÷ 20,328 = 1.0668 or an increase of 7%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 80+ living in Washington in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.