2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Male – Ages 65-69 | Quebec, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 65-69 in Quebec

1. 234 of 3,741 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 6.25% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 363% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 48 of 4,703 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 186 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 962 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 413 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 6,922 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Quebec’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 363% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 65-69 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 234 of 273,417 elderly men aged 65-69 living in Quebec died from Unknown Causes.

234 ÷ 273,417 = 0.00086 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 439 deaths from Unknown Causes among 2,512,778 elderly men aged 65-69 living in Quebec in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

439 ÷ 2,512,778 = 0.00017 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

273,417 X 0.00017 = 48 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

234 – 48 = 186

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

234 ÷ 48 = 4.6335

This reveals 186 lives lost and is 463.35% of what we expected (an increase of 363%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 65-69 living in Quebec in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

529 ÷ 1,727,333 = 0.00031 (5-yr CDR)

273,417(2022 pop) X 0.00031 = 84 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

234 – 84 = 150 or 150 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

234 ÷ 84 = 2.7062 or an increase of 171%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 65-69 living in Quebec in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

2,000,750 X 0.00017 = 350 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

763 – 350 = 413 or 413 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

763 ÷ 350 = 2.0647 or an increase of 106%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 65-69 living in Quebec in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.