2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Male – Ages 65-69 | California, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 65-69 in California

1. 1,820 of 16,428 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 11.08% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 14% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 2,117 of 16,035 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 297 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 393 excess All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 2,267 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 1,800 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of California’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 14% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 65-69 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,820 of 943,198 elderly men aged 65-69 living in California died from Unknown Causes.

1,820 ÷ 943,198 = 0.00193 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 19,166 deaths from Unknown Causes among 8,539,388 elderly men aged 65-69 living in California in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

19,166 ÷ 8,539,388 = 0.00224 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

943,198 X 0.00224 = 2,117 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,820 – 2,117 = -297

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,820 ÷ 2,117 = 0.8559

This reveals 297 lives saved and is 85.59% of what we expected (a decrease of 14%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 65-69 living in California in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

11,787 ÷ 6,129,465 = 0.00192 (5-yr CDR)

943,198(2022 pop) X 0.00192 = 1,814 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,820 – 1,814 = 6 or 6 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,820 ÷ 1,814 = 0.9982 or an increase of 0%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 65-69 living in California in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

7,072,663 X 0.00224 = 15,874 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

13607 – 15,874 = -2,267 or 2,267 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

13,607 ÷ 15,874 = 0.8534 or a decrease of 15%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 65-69 living in California in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.