2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Both Sexes – 65-69 | California, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 65-69 in California

1. 3,368 of 27,203 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 12.38% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 13% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 3,850 of 27,438 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 482 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 235 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 4,577 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 11,010 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of California’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 13% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 65-69 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 3,368 of 1,974,129 elderly men and women aged 65-69 living in California died from Unknown Causes.

3,368 ÷ 1,974,129 = 0.00171 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 35,614 deaths from Unknown Causes among 18,260,357 elderly men and women aged 65-69 living in California in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

35,614 ÷ 18,260,357 = 0.00195 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,974,129 X 0.00195 = 3,850 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

3,368 – 3,850 = -482

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

3,368 ÷ 3,850 = 0.8703

This reveals 482 lives saved and is 87.03% of what we expected (a decrease of 13%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 65-69 living in California in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

21,299 ÷ 13,020,150 = 0.00164 (5-yr CDR)

1,974,129(2022 pop) X 0.00164 = 3,229 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

3,368 – 3,229 = 139 or 139 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

3,368 ÷ 3,229 = 1.0366 or an increase of 4%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 65-69 living in California in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

14,994,279 X 0.00195 = 29,244 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

24667 – 29,244 = -4,577 or 4,577 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

24,667 ÷ 29,244 = 0.8392 or a decrease of 16%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 65-69 living in California in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.