2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Female – Ages 50-54 | California, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for women aged 50-54 in California

1. 1,052 of 3,641 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 28.89% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 2% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,017 of 3,970 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 35 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 329 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 691 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 2,629 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of California’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 2% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many women aged 50-54 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,052 of 1,220,937 women aged 50-54 living in California died from Unknown Causes.

1,052 ÷ 1,220,937 = 0.00086 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 15,132 deaths from Unknown Causes among 18,172,925 women aged 50-54 living in California in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

15,132 ÷ 18,172,925 = 0.00083 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,220,937 X 0.00083 = 1,017 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,052 – 1,017 = 35

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,052 ÷ 1,017 = 1.0225

This reveals 35 lives lost and is 102.25% of what we expected (an increase of 2%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among women aged 50-54 living in California in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

6,673 ÷ 8,886,537 = 0.00075 (5-yr CDR)

1,220,937(2022 pop) X 0.00075 = 917 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,052 – 917 = 135 or 135 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,052 ÷ 917 = 1.1324 or an increase of 13%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among women aged 50-54 living in California in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

10,107,474 X 0.00083 = 8,416 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

7725 – 8,416 = -691 or 691 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

7,725 ÷ 8,416 = 0.9070 or a decrease of 9%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among women aged 50-54 living in California in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.