2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Female – Ages 70-74 | California, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly women aged 70-74 in California

1. 1,595 of 13,562 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 11.76% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 18% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,930 of 15,367 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 335 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 1,805 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 2,355 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 16,158 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of California’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 18% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly women aged 70-74 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,595 of 853,563 elderly women aged 70-74 living in California died from Unknown Causes.

1,595 ÷ 853,563 = 0.00187 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 17,798 deaths from Unknown Causes among 7,870,930 elderly women aged 70-74 living in California in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

17,798 ÷ 7,870,930 = 0.00226 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

853,563 X 0.00226 = 1,930 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,595 – 1,930 = -335

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,595 ÷ 1,930 = 0.8227

This reveals 335 lives saved and is 82.27% of what we expected (a decrease of 18%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly women aged 70-74 living in California in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

10,112 ÷ 5,365,058 = 0.00188 (5-yr CDR)

853,563(2022 pop) X 0.00188 = 1,609 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,595 – 1,609 = -14 or 14 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,595 ÷ 1,609 = 0.9862 or a decrease of 1%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly women aged 70-74 living in California in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

6,218,621 X 0.00226 = 14,062 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

11707 – 14,062 = -2,355 or 2,355 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

11,707 ÷ 14,062 = 0.8289 or a decrease of 17%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly women aged 70-74 living in California in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.