2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 45-49 | Alberta, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 45-49 in Alberta

1. 144 of 765 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 18.82% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 698% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 15 of 658 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 129 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 107 excess All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 629 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 7 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Alberta’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 698% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 45-49 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 144 of 298,702 people aged 45-49 living in Alberta died from Unknown Causes.

144 ÷ 298,702 = 0.00048 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 195 deaths from Unknown Causes among 3,867,492 people aged 45-49 living in Alberta in the 14 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

195 ÷ 3,867,492 = 0.00005 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

298,702 X 0.00005 = 15 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

144 – 15 = 129

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

144 ÷ 15 = 7.9789

This reveals 129 lives lost and is 797.89% of what we expected (an increase of 698%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 45-49 living in Alberta in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

599 ÷ 1,970,618 = 0.00030 (5-yr CDR)

298,702(2022 pop) X 0.00030 = 91 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

144 – 91 = 53 or 53 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

144 ÷ 91 = 1.5355 or an increase of 54%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 45-49 living in Alberta in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

2,269,320 X 0.00005 = 114 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

743 – 114 = 629 or 629 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

743 ÷ 114 = 5.4189 or an increase of 442%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 45-49 living in Alberta in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.