2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Female – 90+ | Ontario, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly women aged 90+ in Ontario

1. 900 of 17,118 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 5.26% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 78% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 504 of 15,001 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 396 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 2,117 excess All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 924 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 4,501 excess All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Ontario’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 78% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly women aged 90+ were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 900 of 93,924 elderly women aged 90+ living in Ontario died from Unknown Causes.

900 ÷ 93,924 = 0.00958 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 3,866 deaths from Unknown Causes among 720,051 elderly women aged 90+ living in Ontario in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

3,866 ÷ 720,051 = 0.00537 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

93,924 X 0.00537 = 504 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

900 – 504 = 396

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

900 ÷ 504 = 1.7814

This reveals 396 lives lost and is 178.14% of what we expected (an increase of 78%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly women aged 90+ living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

3,748 ÷ 599,598 = 0.00625 (5-yr CDR)

93,924(2022 pop) X 0.00625 = 587 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

900 – 587 = 313 or 313 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

900 ÷ 587 = 1.5305 or an increase of 53%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly women aged 90+ living in Ontario in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

693,522 X 0.00537 = 3,724 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

4648 – 3,724 = 924 or 924 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

4,648 ÷ 3,724 = 1.2459 or an increase of 25%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly women aged 90+ living in Ontario in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.