2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 75-79 | Quebec, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 75-79 in Quebec

1. 432 of 10,964 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 3.94% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 175% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 153 of 12,621 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 279 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 1,657 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 528 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 13,358 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Quebec’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 175% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 75-79 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 432 of 346,841 elderly men and women aged 75-79 living in Quebec died from Unknown Causes.

432 ÷ 346,841 = 0.00125 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 1,451 deaths from Unknown Causes among 3,279,834 elderly men and women aged 75-79 living in Quebec in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

1,451 ÷ 3,279,834 = 0.00044 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

346,841 X 0.00044 = 153 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

432 – 153 = 279

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

432 ÷ 153 = 2.7532

This reveals 279 lives lost and is 275.32% of what we expected (an increase of 175%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 75-79 living in Quebec in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

1,123 ÷ 1,973,641 = 0.00057 (5-yr CDR)

346,841(2022 pop) X 0.00057 = 197 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

432 – 197 = 235 or 235 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

432 ÷ 197 = 2.1512 or an increase of 115%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 75-79 living in Quebec in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

2,320,482 X 0.00044 = 1,027 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1555 – 1,027 = 528 or 528 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

1,555 ÷ 1,027 = 1.4813 or an increase of 48%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 75-79 living in Quebec in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.