2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 40-44 | California, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for people aged 40-44 in California

1. 1,675 of 5,856 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 28.60% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 6% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,765 of 4,738 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 90 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 1,118 excess All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 506 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 1,101 excess All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of California’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 6% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many people aged 40-44 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,675 of 2,606,759 people aged 40-44 living in California died from Unknown Causes.

1,675 ÷ 2,606,759 = 0.00064 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 27,244 deaths from Unknown Causes among 40,230,935 people aged 40-44 living in California in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

27,244 ÷ 40,230,935 = 0.00068 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

2,606,759 X 0.00068 = 1,765 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,675 – 1,765 = -90

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,675 ÷ 1,765 = 0.9351

This reveals 90 lives saved and is 93.51% of what we expected (a decrease of 6%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 40-44 living in California in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

11,574 ÷ 17,705,018 = 0.00065 (5-yr CDR)

2,606,759(2022 pop) X 0.00065 = 1,704 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,675 – 1,704 = -29 or 29 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,675 ÷ 1,704 = 0.9681 or a decrease of 3%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 40-44 living in California in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

20,311,777 X 0.00068 = 13,755 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

13249 – 13,755 = -506 or 506 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

13,249 ÷ 13,755 = 0.9492 or a decrease of 5%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among people aged 40-44 living in California in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.