2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 75-79 | California, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 75-79 in California

1. 3,548 of 36,101 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 9.83% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 9% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 3,905 of 40,297 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 357 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 4,196 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 2,522 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 34,189 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of California’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 9% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 75-79 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 3,548 of 1,140,952 elderly men and women aged 75-79 living in California died from Unknown Causes.

3,548 ÷ 1,140,952 = 0.00311 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 40,135 deaths from Unknown Causes among 11,726,861 elderly men and women aged 75-79 living in California in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

40,135 ÷ 11,726,861 = 0.00342 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,140,952 X 0.00342 = 3,905 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

3,548 – 3,905 = -357

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

3,548 ÷ 3,905 = 0.9060

This reveals 357 lives saved and is 90.60% of what we expected (a decrease of 9%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 75-79 living in California in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

21,089 ÷ 6,794,523 = 0.00310 (5-yr CDR)

1,140,952(2022 pop) X 0.00310 = 3,541 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

3,548 – 3,541 = 7 or 7 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

3,548 ÷ 3,541 = 0.9987 or a decrease of 0%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 75-79 living in California in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

7,935,475 X 0.00342 = 27,159 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

24637 – 27,159 = -2,522 or 2,522 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

24,637 ÷ 27,159 = 0.9045 or a decrease of 10%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 75-79 living in California in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.