2022 Deaths – All Causes – Female – 80+ | New York, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly women aged 80+ in New York

1. 46,733 of 46,733 total deaths were from All Causes
2. 100.00% of all deaths were from All Causes
3. This is down 1% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 47,436 of 47,436 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 703 fewer than expected deaths from All Causes in 2022.
6. 22,146 excess deaths from All Causes (2015-2022)

1. To show this year’s deaths from All Causes are down 1% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly women aged 80+ were there?” and
• “How many of them died from All Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 46,733 of 251,253 elderly women aged 80+ living in New York died from All Causes.

46,733 ÷ 251,253 = 0.18600 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from All Causes

The table shows there were a total of 672,204 deaths from All Causes among 3,560,459 elderly women aged 80+ living in New York in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

672,204 ÷ 3,560,459 = 0.18880 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

251,253 X 0.18880 = 47,436 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

46,733 – 47,436 = -703

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

46,733 ÷ 47,436 = 0.9851

This reveals 703 lives saved and is 98.51% of what we expected (a decrease of 1%) in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 80+ living in New York in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

328,683 ÷ 1,619,911 = 0.20290 (5-yr CDR)

251,253(2022 pop) X 0.20290 = 50,980 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

46,733 – 50,980 = -4,247 or 4,247 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

46,733 ÷ 50,980 = 0.9167 or a decrease of 8%

for deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 80+ living in New York in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,871,164 X 0.18880 = 353,270 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

375416 – 353,270 = 22,146 or 22,146 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

375,416 ÷ 353,270 = 1.0626 or an increase of 6%

in deaths from All Causes among elderly women aged 80+ living in New York in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.