2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Both Sexes – Ages 80+ | New York, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men and women aged 80+ in New York

1. 9,484 of 79,636 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 11.91% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 21% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 7,830 of 79,525 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 1,654 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 111 excess All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 11,538 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 39,567 excess All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of New York’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 21% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men and women aged 80+ were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 9,484 of 421,658 elderly men and women aged 80+ living in New York died from Unknown Causes.

9,484 ÷ 421,658 = 0.02249 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 106,245 deaths from Unknown Causes among 5,721,141 elderly men and women aged 80+ living in New York in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

106,245 ÷ 5,721,141 = 0.01857 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

421,658 X 0.01857 = 7,830 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

9,484 – 7,830 = 1,654

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

9,484 ÷ 7,830 = 1.2105

This reveals 1,654 lives lost and is 121.05% of what we expected (an increase of 21%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 80+ living in New York in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

60,388 ÷ 2,719,535 = 0.02221 (5-yr CDR)

421,658(2022 pop) X 0.02221 = 9,363 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

9,484 – 9,363 = 121 or 121 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

9,484 ÷ 9,363 = 1.0125 or an increase of 1%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 80+ living in New York in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

3,141,193 X 0.01857 = 58,334 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

69872 – 58,334 = 11,538 or 11,538 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

69,872 ÷ 58,334 = 1.1972 or an increase of 20%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men and women aged 80+ living in New York in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.