2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Male – Ages 15-19 | Texas, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for teen-aged boys aged 15-19 in Texas

1. 321 of 1,011 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 31.75% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 23% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 406 of 903 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 85 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 108 excess All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 545 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 302 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Texas’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 23% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many teen-aged boys aged 15-19 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 321 of 1,106,893 teen-aged boys aged 15-19 living in Texas died from Unknown Causes.

321 ÷ 1,106,893 = 0.00029 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 5,093 deaths from Unknown Causes among 13,884,324 teen-aged boys aged 15-19 living in Texas in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

5,093 ÷ 13,884,324 = 0.00037 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

1,106,893 X 0.00037 = 406 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

321 – 406 = -85

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

321 ÷ 406 = 0.7696

This reveals 85 lives saved and is 76.96% of what we expected (a decrease of 23%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among teen-aged boys aged 15-19 living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

2,203 ÷ 7,259,213 = 0.00030 (5-yr CDR)

1,106,893(2022 pop) X 0.00030 = 336 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

321 – 336 = -15 or 15 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

321 ÷ 336 = 0.9251 or a decrease of 7%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among teen-aged boys aged 15-19 living in Texas in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

8,366,106 X 0.00037 = 3,069 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

2524 – 3,069 = -545 or 545 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

2,524 ÷ 3,069 = 0.8006 or a decrease of 20%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among teen-aged boys aged 15-19 living in Texas in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.