2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Male – 50-54 | Washington, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 50-54 in Washington

1. 648 of 1,436 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 45.13% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 11% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 582 of 1,269 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 66 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 167 excess All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 458 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 176 excess All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Washington’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 11% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 50-54 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 648 of 242,611 men aged 50-54 living in Washington died from Unknown Causes.

648 ÷ 242,611 = 0.00267 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 8,288 deaths from Unknown Causes among 3,453,971 men aged 50-54 living in Washington in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

8,288 ÷ 3,453,971 = 0.00240 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

242,611 X 0.00240 = 582 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

648 – 582 = 66

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

648 ÷ 582 = 1.1085

This reveals 66 lives lost and is 110.85% of what we expected (an increase of 11%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among men aged 50-54 living in Washington in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

4,340 ÷ 1,645,401 = 0.00264 (5-yr CDR)

242,611(2022 pop) X 0.00264 = 640 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

648 – 640 = 8 or 8 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

648 ÷ 640 = 1.0088 or an increase of 1%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among men aged 50-54 living in Washington in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,888,012 X 0.00240 = 4,530 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

4988 – 4,530 = 458 or 458 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

4,988 ÷ 4,530 = 1.0964 or an increase of 10%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among men aged 50-54 living in Washington in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.