2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Male – 65-69 | Washington, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 65-69 in Washington

1. 966 of 3,765 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 25.66% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 9% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,065 of 3,603 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 99 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 162 excess All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 655 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 576 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Washington’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 9% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 65-69 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 966 of 207,556 elderly men aged 65-69 living in Washington died from Unknown Causes.

966 ÷ 207,556 = 0.00465 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 8,961 deaths from Unknown Causes among 1,746,799 elderly men aged 65-69 living in Washington in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

8,961 ÷ 1,746,799 = 0.00513 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

207,556 X 0.00513 = 1,065 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

966 – 1,065 = -99

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

966 ÷ 1,065 = 0.9055

This reveals 99 lives saved and is 90.55% of what we expected (a decrease of 9%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 65-69 living in Washington in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

6,336 ÷ 1,343,618 = 0.00472 (5-yr CDR)

207,556(2022 pop) X 0.00472 = 979 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

966 – 979 = -13 or 13 lives saved

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

966 ÷ 979 = 0.9849 or a decrease of 2%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 65-69 living in Washington in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,551,174 X 0.00513 = 7,957 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

7302 – 7,957 = -655 or 655 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

7,302 ÷ 7,957 = 0.9158 or a decrease of 8%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 65-69 living in Washington in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.