2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Male – Ages 70-74 | Washington, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 70-74 in Washington

1. 1,032 of 4,367 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 23.63% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 16% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,222 of 4,627 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 190 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 260 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 1,463 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 3,532 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Washington’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 16% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 70-74 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,032 of 166,234 elderly men aged 70-74 living in Washington died from Unknown Causes.

1,032 ÷ 166,234 = 0.00621 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 9,354 deaths from Unknown Causes among 1,272,696 elderly men aged 70-74 living in Washington in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

9,354 ÷ 1,272,696 = 0.00735 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

166,234 X 0.00735 = 1,222 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,032 – 1,222 = -190

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,032 ÷ 1,222 = 0.8435

This reveals 190 lives saved and is 84.35% of what we expected (a decrease of 16%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 70-74 living in Washington in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

6,138 ÷ 1,008,386 = 0.00609 (5-yr CDR)

166,234(2022 pop) X 0.00609 = 1,012 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,032 – 1,012 = 20 or 20 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,032 ÷ 1,012 = 1.0182 or an increase of 2%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 70-74 living in Washington in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,174,620 X 0.00735 = 8,633 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

7170 – 8,633 = -1,463 or 1,463 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

7,170 ÷ 8,633 = 0.8294 or a decrease of 17%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 70-74 living in Washington in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.