2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Female – Ages 75-79 | California, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly women aged 75-79 in California

1. 1,764 of 16,525 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 10.67% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 6% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,876 of 18,776 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 112 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 2,251 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 1,100 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 18,583 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of California’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 6% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly women aged 75-79 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,764 of 628,202 elderly women aged 75-79 living in California died from Unknown Causes.

1,764 ÷ 628,202 = 0.00281 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 19,896 deaths from Unknown Causes among 6,663,142 elderly women aged 75-79 living in California in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

19,896 ÷ 6,663,142 = 0.00299 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

628,202 X 0.00299 = 1,876 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,764 – 1,876 = -112

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,764 ÷ 1,876 = 0.9373

This reveals 112 lives saved and is 93.73% of what we expected (a decrease of 6%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly women aged 75-79 living in California in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

10,261 ÷ 3,767,258 = 0.00272 (5-yr CDR)

628,202(2022 pop) X 0.00272 = 1,711 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,764 – 1,711 = 53 or 53 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,764 ÷ 1,711 = 1.0272 or an increase of 3%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly women aged 75-79 living in California in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

4,395,460 X 0.00299 = 13,125 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

12025 – 13,125 = -1,100 or 1,100 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

12,025 ÷ 13,125 = 0.9131 or a decrease of 9%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly women aged 75-79 living in California in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.