2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Male – Ages 45-49 | Quebec, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 45-49 in Quebec

1. 103 of 555 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 18.56% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 294% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 23 of 719 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 80 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 164 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 178 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 1,410 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Quebec’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 294% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 45-49 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 103 of 275,393 men aged 45-49 living in Quebec died from Unknown Causes.

103 ÷ 275,393 = 0.00037 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 397 deaths from Unknown Causes among 4,671,444 men aged 45-49 living in Quebec in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

397 ÷ 4,671,444 = 0.00008 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

275,393 X 0.00008 = 23 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

103 – 23 = 80

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

103 ÷ 23 = 3.9376

This reveals 80 lives lost and is 393.76% of what we expected (an increase of 294%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among men aged 45-49 living in Quebec in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

257 ÷ 1,865,211 = 0.00014 (5-yr CDR)

275,393(2022 pop) X 0.00014 = 38 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

103 – 38 = 65 or 65 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

103 ÷ 38 = 2.5308 or an increase of 153%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among men aged 45-49 living in Quebec in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

2,140,604 X 0.00008 = 182 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

360 – 182 = 178 or 178 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

360 ÷ 182 = 1.7706 or an increase of 77%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among men aged 45-49 living in Quebec in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.