2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Male – Ages 50-54 | Quebec, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 50-54 in Quebec

1. 127 of 844 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 15.05% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 381% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 24 of 1,091 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 103 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 247 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 262 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 2,097 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Quebec’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 381% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 50-54 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 127 of 264,169 men aged 50-54 living in Quebec died from Unknown Causes.

127 ÷ 264,169 = 0.00048 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 401 deaths from Unknown Causes among 4,453,206 men aged 50-54 living in Quebec in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

401 ÷ 4,453,206 = 0.00009 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

264,169 X 0.00009 = 24 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

127 – 24 = 103

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

127 ÷ 24 = 4.8052

This reveals 103 lives lost and is 480.52% of what we expected (an increase of 381%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among men aged 50-54 living in Quebec in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

345 ÷ 2,066,771 = 0.00017 (5-yr CDR)

264,169(2022 pop) X 0.00017 = 44 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

127 – 44 = 83 or 83 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

127 ÷ 44 = 2.7172 or an increase of 172%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among men aged 50-54 living in Quebec in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

2,330,940 X 0.00009 = 210 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

472 – 210 = 262 or 262 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

472 ÷ 210 = 2.0240 or an increase of 102%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among men aged 50-54 living in Quebec in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.