2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Female – 80+ | New York, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly women aged 80+ in New York

1. 5,210 of 46,733 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 11.15% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 23% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 4,244 of 47,436 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 966 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 703 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 6,675 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 22,146 excess All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of New York’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 23% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly women aged 80+ were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 5,210 of 251,253 elderly women aged 80+ living in New York died from Unknown Causes.

5,210 ÷ 251,253 = 0.02074 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 60,140 deaths from Unknown Causes among 3,560,459 elderly women aged 80+ living in New York in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

60,140 ÷ 3,560,459 = 0.01689 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

251,253 X 0.01689 = 4,244 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

5,210 – 4,244 = 966

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

5,210 ÷ 4,244 = 1.2269

This reveals 966 lives lost and is 122.69% of what we expected (an increase of 23%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly women aged 80+ living in New York in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

33,071 ÷ 1,619,911 = 0.02042 (5-yr CDR)

251,253(2022 pop) X 0.02042 = 5,129 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

5,210 – 5,129 = 81 or 81 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

5,210 ÷ 5,129 = 1.0152 or an increase of 2%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly women aged 80+ living in New York in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,871,164 X 0.01689 = 31,606 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

38281 – 31,606 = 6,675 or 6,675 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

38,281 ÷ 31,606 = 1.2105 or an increase of 21%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly women aged 80+ living in New York in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.