2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Male – Ages 45-49 | New York, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for men aged 45-49 in New York

1. 829 of 2,251 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 36.83% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 12% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 737 of 2,096 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 92 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 155 excess All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 219 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 971 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of New York’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 12% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many men aged 45-49 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 829 of 564,661 men aged 45-49 living in New York died from Unknown Causes.

829 ÷ 564,661 = 0.00147 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 13,541 deaths from Unknown Causes among 10,375,367 men aged 45-49 living in New York in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

13,541 ÷ 10,375,367 = 0.00131 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

564,661 X 0.00131 = 737 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

829 – 737 = 92

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

829 ÷ 737 = 1.1164

This reveals 92 lives lost and is 111.64% of what we expected (an increase of 12%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among men aged 45-49 living in New York in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

5,667 ÷ 4,245,118 = 0.00133 (5-yr CDR)

564,661(2022 pop) X 0.00133 = 754 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

829 – 754 = 75 or 75 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

829 ÷ 754 = 1.0916 or an increase of 9%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among men aged 45-49 living in New York in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

4,809,779 X 0.00131 = 6,277 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

6496 – 6,277 = 219 or 219 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

6,496 ÷ 6,277 = 1.0270 or an increase of 3%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among men aged 45-49 living in New York in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.