2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Male – Ages 70-74 | New York, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 70-74 in New York

1. 1,435 of 10,023 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 14.32% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is down 7% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 1,532 of 11,712 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 97 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 1,689 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 906 fewer than expected deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 9,543 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of New York’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are down 7% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 70-74 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 1,435 of 415,734 elderly men aged 70-74 living in New York died from Unknown Causes.

1,435 ÷ 415,734 = 0.00345 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 14,518 deaths from Unknown Causes among 3,939,409 elderly men aged 70-74 living in New York in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

14,518 ÷ 3,939,409 = 0.00369 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

415,734 X 0.00369 = 1,532 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

1,435 – 1,532 = -97

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

1,435 ÷ 1,532 = 0.9341

This reveals 97 lives saved and is 93.41% of what we expected (a decrease of 7%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 70-74 living in New York in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

8,437 ÷ 2,508,791 = 0.00336 (5-yr CDR)

415,734(2022 pop) X 0.00336 = 1,398 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

1,435 – 1,398 = 37 or 37 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

1,435 ÷ 1,398 = 1.0233 or an increase of 2%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 70-74 living in New York in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

2,924,525 X 0.00369 = 10,778 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

9872 – 10,778 = -906 or 906 lives saved

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

9,872 ÷ 10,778 = 0.9135 or a decrease of 9%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 70-74 living in New York in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.