2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Male – Ages 80+ | New York, United States

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 80+ in New York

1. 4,274 of 32,903 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 12.99% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 17% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 3,636 of 32,083 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 638 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 820 excess All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 4,491 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 17,464 excess All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of New York’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 17% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 80+ were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 4,274 of 170,405 elderly men aged 80+ living in New York died from Unknown Causes.

4,274 ÷ 170,405 = 0.02508 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 46,105 deaths from Unknown Causes among 2,160,682 elderly men aged 80+ living in New York in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

46,105 ÷ 2,160,682 = 0.02134 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

170,405 X 0.02134 = 3,636 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

4,274 – 3,636 = 638

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

4,274 ÷ 3,636 = 1.1749

This reveals 638 lives lost and is 117.49% of what we expected (an increase of 17%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 80+ living in New York in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

27,317 ÷ 1,099,624 = 0.02484 (5-yr CDR)

170,405(2022 pop) X 0.02484 = 4,233 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

4,274 – 4,233 = 41 or 41 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

4,274 ÷ 4,233 = 1.0092 or an increase of 1%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 80+ living in New York in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,270,029 X 0.02134 = 27,100 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

31591 – 27,100 = 4,491 or 4,491 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

31,591 ÷ 27,100 = 1.1652 or an increase of 17%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 80+ living in New York in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.