2022 Deaths – Unknown Causes – Male – Ages 75-79 | Quebec, Canada

2022 vs New Normal™ for elderly men aged 75-79 in Quebec

1. 236 of 6,007 total deaths were from Unknown Causes
2. 3.93% of all deaths were from Unknown Causes
3. This is up 165% compared to Old Normal rates.
4. 87 of 7,612 total deaths would have been expected under Old Normal conditions.
5. 149 excess deaths from Unknown Causes in 2022.
6. 1,605 fewer than expected All Cause deaths in 2022.
7. 276 excess deaths from Unknown Causes (2015-2022)
8. 10,773 fewer than expected All Cause deaths over the first 8 years of Quebec’s New Normal™.

1. To show this year’s deaths from Unknown Causes are up 165% compared to Old Normal rates, we need to calculate the rates for both 2022 and for the Old Normal.

Remember, death rates are calculated to answer these questions:

• “How many elderly men aged 75-79 were there?” and
• “How many of them died from Unknown Causes?”

The following 2 charts provide this information:

From the charts, we can see that in 2022, 236 of 163,751 elderly men aged 75-79 living in Quebec died from Unknown Causes.

236 ÷ 163,751 = 0.00144 (2022 CDR)

We’ll use the table below to calculate our Old Normal rate for deaths from Unknown Causes

The table shows there were a total of 747 deaths from Unknown Causes among 1,401,691 elderly men aged 75-79 living in Quebec in the 15 years immediately prior to the New Normal™.

747 ÷ 1,401,691 = 0.00053 (Old Normal CDR)

We can use the Old Normal rate to predict this year’s deaths:

2022 pop X Old Normal CDR = expected deaths

163,751 X 0.00053 = 87 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths shows lives saved or lost:

236 – 87 = 149

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths gives us the comparative rates:

236 ÷ 87 = 2.6545

This reveals 149 lives lost and is 265.45% of what we expected (an increase of 165%) in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 75-79 living in Quebec in 2022, as compared to the Old Normal.

This is the same method used by Public Health to calculate the 5-yr CDR (Cumulative Death Rate):

616 ÷ 917,766 = 0.00067 (5-yr CDR)

163,751(2022 pop) X 0.00067 = 110 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

236 – 110 = 126 or 126 lives lost

Divide actual deaths by expected deaths:

236 ÷ 110 = 2.1157 or an increase of 112%

for deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 75-79 living in Quebec in 2022, as compared to the previous 5 years.

Compare our Old Normal to the 5yr CDR. Does it tell the same story your TV does?

Finally, the same method can also be used to compare our Old Normal rate to the New Normal™ rate:

New Normal™ population X Old Normal rate = expected deaths

1,081,517 X 0.00053 = 576 expected deaths

The difference between actual and expected deaths:

852 – 576 = 276 or 276 lives lost

Dividing the actual deaths by the expected deaths:

852 ÷ 576 = 1.4510 or an increase of 45%

in deaths from Unknown Causes among elderly men aged 75-79 living in Quebec in the New Normal™, as compared to the Old Normal.